Buckle up for the summer’s first heat wave as the weekend brings triple-digit temperatures that will stretch into next week.
The National Weather Service in Tucson forecast Sunday’s high in Green Valley and Sahuarita at 107 degrees. Tucson will likely reach 109.
The above-average stretch of temperatures worsens early in the week, with Green Valley forecast at 109 on Monday, 108 on Tuesday and 107 on Wednesday. Sahuarita will get slightly warmer, with a 110-degree high expected Monday and 108 degrees the following two days. Tucson could see a 113-degree high Monday and 111 degrees the following two days.
Weather Service meteorologist Carl Cerniglia said Sunday begins the peak heat period. This time of year is typically 102 degrees for the high.
The increased temperatures are part of a pressure system from the east moving into Arizona.
“Basically, if you kind of follow what’s been happening further to our east, where they’ve had an extreme heat wave in Texas and New Mexico, that’s due to a really high-pressure system aloft that’s kind of over that area,” he said. “And little by little, that’s going to build to the west and over our region and push our temperatures into the 5-10 degrees above normal category, which puts us around 110, 111.”
As of Thursday, the Weather Service hadn’t issued any heat warnings for Monday through Wednesday, but Cerniglia said the temperature increases could trigger one.
“It’s close, and we’re looking into that now,” he said. “We’re just kind of in a time constraint at this point — we’re at Thursday, and we’re talking about early next week. But that would likely, along with the overnight temperatures and moisture that we have, we’ll probably end up with that.”
The Weather Service forecasted lows in the low-70s from Sunday through Tuesday in Green Valley and Sahuarita.
While Sunday through Wednesday represents the heat wave’s peak, there isn’t much relief in store during the latter part of the week.
“We’ll kind of back off a little bit, but even like Thursday, Friday, Saturday, we’re still looking at 108-ish,” Cerniglia said. “So above normal, but not quite as high as 110 or 111, but still warmer than normal through much of next week.”
Heat safety
Green Valley Fire District spokesman L.T. Pratt said it’s difficult to sort heat-related calls from routine medical calls, but he found upcoming forecasts could likely bring dehydration-related calls.
“It’s kind of hard for people to get into the swing of making sure they’re hydrating themselves more than they normally would,” he said. “And we kind of notice that when the temperatures get up to about 100 degrees, most people in our area realize that they can’t get out there during the day.”
Pratt said people could improve their hydration by avoiding alcohol and caffeine during this time and sticking to water and occasional sports drinks to balance electrolytes.
He said GVFD would have desert heat safety tips available on its website, gvfire.org, beginning July 1 but added there are important warning signs people should know now.
People should keep an eye on excessive sweating or no sweating, hot, red, dry skin, dizziness, nausea, confusion, stumbled speech, muscle cramps and an increased resting heart rate.
“I’m talking, you’re resting or walking along, and it just feels like your heart is coming out of your chest,” Pratt said about an increased pulse outside of normal activity.
He said people should also keep track of the temperature and humidity to get an accurate heat index perspective, especially as monsoon humidity increases with temperatures.
Pratt also wants people to remember their pets as the temperature increases. He said it’s best to walk them in the morning and evenings as surfaces could be hot, and pets will experience warmer temperatures closer to them than a person might feel at chest height.
Pratt added that people should also remember it’s not OK to leave pets or people in a car while running into a store as temperatures could quickly increase inside to 120 to 140 degrees.
While Southern Arizona is officially about a week deep into the monsoon, precipitation will remain elusive as above-average temperatures move into the Interstate 19 corridor, making any upcoming relief beyond the horizon.
Cerniglia said models show moisture moving into Mexico, adding that it is a good thing they do want to see. But that moisture won’t likely make its way into Southern Arizona until July, which he said isn’t too long of a wait.
“In the model world, moisture is creeping up to the border at least, so we’ve got a shot at it when you get about a week and a half out,” Cerniglia said Thursday.
Cerniglia said models show moisture moving into Mexico, adding that it is a good thing they do want to see. But that moisture won’t likely make its way into Southern Arizona until July, which he said isn’t too long of a wait.
“In the model world, moisture is creeping up to the border at least, so we’ve got a shot at it when you get about a week and a half out,” Cerniglia said Thursday.
By Jorge Encinas jencinas@gvnews.com Jun 22, 2023